Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961-2013) on potential evaporation model

摘要

The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) can lead to controversial results in assessing droughts responding to global warming. Here we assess recent changes in the droughts over China (1961-2013) using the PDSI with two different estimates, i.e., the Thornthwaite (PDSI_th) and Penman-Monteith (PDSI_pm) approaches. We found that droughts have become more severe in the PDSI_th but slightly lessened in the PDSI_pm estimate. To quantify and interpret the different responses in the PDSI_th and PDSI_pm, we designed numerical experiments and found that drying trend of the PDSI_th responding to the warming alone is 3.4 times higher than that of the PDSI_pm, and the latter was further compensated by decreases in wind speed and solar radiation causing the slightly wetting in the PDSI_pm. Interestingly, we found that interbasin difference in the PDSI_th and PDSI_pm responses to the warming alone tends to be larger in warmer basins, exponentially depending on mean temperature.